Reputifly editorial · Reviewed 27 September 2026 · 2 min read
Model clicks, qualified enquiries and customers with explicit assumptions before choosing a campaign budget.
Start with three scenarios
A campaign forecast is an assumption sheet, not a prediction. Create cautious, central and optimistic scenarios using the same definitions. Use observed account data where available; for a new account, label estimates and plan how the first test will replace them.
Calculate the funnel in order
- Clicks = media spend ÷ average cost per click.
- Enquiries = clicks × landing-page enquiry rate.
- Qualified enquiries = enquiries × qualification rate.
- Customers = qualified enquiries × sales close rate.
- Contribution = customers × contribution per customer, before marketing costs.
Keep agency fees and creative costs separate from media spend, then include them when calculating total acquisition cost.
Work through an example
Illustrative assumptions: S$1,000 media spend, S$5 per click, a 5% enquiry rate, 60% qualification and a 25% close rate. That produces 200 clicks, 10 enquiries, 6 qualified enquiries and an expected 1.5 customers. The fractional customer is a modelling average, not something a small campaign can literally deliver.
If contribution per customer is S$800, expected contribution is S$1,200 before marketing costs. There is only S$200 left after media spend, and less after other costs. A good-looking click forecast can therefore be commercially weak.
Find the assumption that changes the decision
Change one assumption at a time. If a small movement in qualification turns the model negative, qualification is a priority to measure. Do not improve every assumption simultaneously to make the budget look attractive.
Record actual spend, unique enquiries, qualified leads and mature sales after the test. Compare those with the assumptions before scaling. Pair this with the campaign planning service when you need implementation support.
